Journal of Geoscience and Eco Agricultural Studies

Abstract

The Democratic Republic of Congo has significant agricultural potential but continues to face insufficient domestic food supply, particularly for maize, a major staple food. This study analyzes the determinants of domestic maize supply in the DRC using annual time-series data covering 2000-2024, mainly obtained from FAO/FAOSTAT and the World Bank. Domestic maize production is modeled as a function of rainfall, cultivated area, maize imports, population and economic growth. The analysis uses an AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, preceded by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity test and the bounds cointegration test. The results indicate a long-run relationship between maize production, rainfall and imports. In the short run, lagged maize production and rainfall have negative and statistically significant effects, while maize imports have a positive but statistically insignificant effect. In the long run, rainfall has a positive effect whereas maize imports have a negative effect. In the selected model, a 1% change in rainfall is associated with a 60.35% increase in maize production, while a 1% change in maize imports is associated with a 1.88% decrease in domestic production. These findings highlight the importance of climatic conditions and import dynamics in explaining domestic maize supply in the DRC.