Journal of Geoscience and Eco Agricultural Studies

Abstract

Indonesia’s oil palm sector entered the second half of 2026 under an active and strengthening El Niño, the anticipated emergence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, below-normal rainfall probabilities, above-normal temperatures, and increasing drought and fire danger. This article develops a qualitative integrative literature review to identify the principal risk pathways and the measures required to protect plantation productivity, workers, surrounding communities, and peatland landscapes. Evidence published predominantly between 2020 and 2026 was purposively drawn from climatology, crop physiology, agronomy, hydrology, fire science, occupational health, smallholder studies, and climate-governance research. The synthesis finds that the 2026 threat is best understood as a compound and cascading risk system rather than a single rainfall shock. Water deficit and elevated atmospheric demand can reduce photosynthesis, disrupt reproductive development, weaken nutrient uptake, and create yield losses that emerge months or years after the initial stress. Dry fuels, declining peat groundwater levels, human ignition, worker heat exposure, mill-water shortages, and smallholder resource constraints can magnify the consequences. The article proposes a multi-scale mitigation portfolio centred on climate intelligence, trigger-based operating procedures, soil- and water-conservation measures, adaptive nutrient management, peat hydrological control, fire prevention, occupational heat protection, supply-chain continuity, and targeted smallholder support. Its practical contribution is a phased action framework linking forecast lead time and locally observed indicators to no-regret, threshold-triggered, recovery, and longer-term resilience measures. Effective implementation requires coordination from the palm and block levels to mills, catchments, peat hydrological units, financial institutions, and public policy.