Journal of Economic and Social Dynamics

Abstract

This study tests whether the escalation of US-led tariffs beginning in 2018 is associated with changes in South Asian merchandise exports to the United States. Using annual country-level export values for Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, we estimate a simple linear model where a post‑2018 indicator proxies the tariff-war period. We present pooled and country-specific results with supporting figures. While the design is descriptive and not causal, it provides a compact baseline for future work that adds sectoral controls and alternative identification strategies. The United States’ imposition of tariffs since 2018—primarily targeting China but extending to a wide range of global partners—has reshaped the global trade landscape. South Asia, although not the direct target of these measures, has been indirectly affected through disrupted supply chains, shifting trade flows, and heightened uncertainty in the global economy. This paper investigates the effects of the US-led tariff war on South Asian trade flows using a combination of descriptive analysis and econometric modeling. A simple linear regression is employed to measure whether South Asian exports to the United States declined after 2018, the onset of the trade war. The analysis combines country-level trade data with secondary information from global financial institutions. Results suggest a heterogeneous impact: India and Bangladesh show modest trade contractions, while smaller economies like Nepal and Bhutan exhibit minimal direct effects but are indirectly influenced through regional spillovers. The findings emphasize the vulnerability of South Asian economies to global tariff disputes and provide policy recommendations to strengthen resilience through diversification and regional integration.