Journal of Economic and Social Dynamics

Abstract

Tariff-linked energy purchase agreements, such as the recent $750 billion U.S.–EU deal, are framed as vic tories for American trade policy. In reality, these arrangements act as a dual tax on U.S. households—once through import tariffs and again through upward pressure on domestic energy prices caused by expanded exports. Using household-level models for California’s PG&E service area, combined with U.S. Department of Energy export elasticity data, this paper estimates that plausible scenarios could raise annual residential energy costs by $350–$650 before accounting for transportation fuel impacts. When gasoline and diesel price effects are included, total annual household burdens can reach $500–$850. The export chain itself consumes 10–20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) energy content, accelerating drawdown of finite reserves[6]. These policies also risk compromising long-term energy security by hastening the need for imports, imposing higher costs on future generations. The emerging growth in artificial intelligence (AI) and data center electricity de mand—projected to reach 200–250 TWh annually by 2030[7]—compounds these challenges, as export-driven energy losses could otherwise power all projected AI needs several times over. Coupled with the oil and gas industry’s more than $104 million in federal lobbying expenditures in 2025[4], these trends raise fundamen tal questions about national interest, economic equity, intergenerational responsibility, and strategic energy allocation.