Journal of Economic and Social Dynamics

Abstract

This paper applies the frameworks of total surplus analysis and inclusive wealth indexing to quantify the net economic wealth lost to psychosocial stress triggered by environmental change, using proximity to a proposed or operational nuclear waste deposit as the exemplar. Conventional GDP measures may record some market transactions associated with stress-related healthcare expenditure or property-value adjustment, yet they substantially understate the triangular losses in consumer and producer surplus that arise from reduced longevity, stigma-driven demand shifts, and foregone ecosystem-service benefits. Formalised as a negative shift in total surplus, where stress induces a leftward or downward movement in the marginal social benefit curve through nocebo effects, anticipatory anxiety and perceived health risks and an upward shift in marginal social cost through accelerated biological ageing and behavioural sequelae the analysis finds a large negative net surplus even at negligible radiological doses. Drawing on psychoneuroendocrinology, telomere biology, and hedonic and inclusive-wealth valuation, including ETH Zürich-affiliated ecosystem restoration and natural-capital accounting, the empirical ranges assembled here (0.5–3 years of reduced life expectancy; quality-adjusted life years monetised at CHF 100,000–200,000; property-value depressions of 10–30 per cent; and tourism and recreational benefits foregone) imply cumulative wealth destruction in the tens to hundreds of billions of Swiss francs, in present value, for a mid-sized Swiss or European siting scenario. Total surplus and inclusive wealth are argued to dominate GDP as metrics for perceived environmental risk. Transparent risk communication and community engagement, which dampen nocebo amplification, have a correspondingly high economic return.