Abstract

Tariff-linked energy purchase agreements, such as the recent $750 billion U.S.-EU deal, are framed as vic tories for American trade policy. In reality, these arrangements act as a dual tax on U.S. households-once through import tariffs and again through upward pressure on domestic energy prices caused by expanded exports. Using household-level models for California's PG&E service area, combined with U.S. Department of Energy export elasticity data, this paper estimates that plausible scenarios could raise annual residential energy costs by $350-$650 before accounting for transportation fuel impacts. When gasoline and diesel price effects are included, total annual household burdens can reach $500-$850. The export chain itself consumes 10-20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) energy content, accelerating drawdown of finite reserves[6]. These policies also risk compromising long-term energy security by hastening the need for imports, imposing higher costs on future generations. The emerging growth in artificial intelligence (AI) and data center electricity de mand-projected to reach 200-250 TWh annually by 2030[7]-compounds these challenges, as export-driven energy losses could otherwise power all projected AI needs several times over. Coupled with the oil and gas industry's more than $104 million in federal lobbying expenditures in 2025[4], these trends raise fundamen tal questions about national interest, economic equity, intergenerational responsibility, and strategic energy allocation.

DOI: doi.org/10.63721/26JESD0131

To Read or Download the Article   PDF